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John Murray, shown in his offices at Royal Poinciana Plaza, uses a mental performance index to rate sports teams. The system gives the Colts an edge over the Bears.

FOOTBALL FREUD SYSTEM'S WILD FOR COLTS

By MARGIE KACOHA

John Murray isn't rooting for the Bears ... or the Colts really.

The Palm Beach sports psychologist is sticking with his Mental Performance Index, or MPI.

Some fans might be counting on a resurrection of the Monsters of the Midway or just feeling it in their bones that Peyton Manning will finally deliver "the big one.

But the "Freud of Football" is sticking to statistics.

His system of analyzing every action in the playoffs puts Indianapolis ahead of Chicago in today's Super Bowl. So, indirectly, that would put Murray in the Indianapolis Colts' camp.

Murray, a licensed clinical and sports psychologist, developed the computer analysis that rates teams on a scale of .000 to 1.000. The higher the score, the nearer a team is to perfection.

According to Murray's system, Indianapolis scored .547 overall throughout the playoffs, edging out Chicago's total MPI score of .520.

"Indianapolis comes across as a clear winner," Murray said Friday. "It's not emotional. It's purely a statistical measure of performance."

Murray, who holds a doctorate in clinical psychology from the University of Florida, logged each play during the final games leading up to today's Midwest showdown in Miami.

As for experience, he has worked with NFL, college and high school teams and players as a sports psychologist.

That field work combined with his education - which also includes two master's degrees in exercise and sports sciences and clinical psychology - enables him to read plays in terms of performance rather than just outcome.

He developed the system in 2002 to highlight the mental factors of pressure management, focused execution and reduction of mental errors.

Murray's pick squares with the odds makers. Indianapolis is favored over Chicago by seven points.

But Murray stays away from that aspect of sports talk, conjecture, prognostication and prediction.

"I don't gamble," he said. "I don't bet on games. That would be counter to [the integrity] of the system."

His MPI delivered in 2003, '04 and '05.

Last year, the MPI favored the Seattle Seahawks over the Pittsburgh Steelers. But three rare big plays by Pittsburgh were instrumental to Seattle's loss, he said.

Murray will watch the game tonight at home with his family. He said that will be the time to let the Super Bowl speak for itself. But he will go into it with his MPI in mind.

"Indianapolis has so decisively outperformed Chicago that a two- or three-touchdown victory looks imminent," Murray wrote in his pre-game analysis. "The Bears will have to play an almost perfect game, win the battle of turnovers, and make huge plays to win this one."

But fans of "da Bears" shouldn't take it personally.

"It's the MPI, not me," he said.

- mkacoha@pbdailynews.com

Keywords: COMPUTER SUPER BOWL PREDICTION TECHNOLOGY PB

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